A framework for estuarine future sea-level scenarios: Response of the industrialised Elbe estuary to projected mean sea level rise and internal variability

In this study, we apply probabilistic estimates of mean sea level (MSL) rise and a sub-set regional climate model ensemble simulations to force numerical the southern North Sea, downscaling projected variability Elbe estuary that serves as prototype for an industrialised meso-tidal estuary. The specific forcing combination enables localised projection future estuarine hydrodynamics accounting spread global due internal variability. Under applied high-emission scenario, shows high decadal rates water (MWL) beyond 19 mm y -1 , increase in tidal range up 14 extreme levels 18 . bandwidth response is also high. For example, average monthly 0.57 m rise, 0.58 whereas seasonal attains 1.99 locally. lower estuary, dominates over Internal variability, represented by spread, notably impacts current asymmetry shallow upper This area demonstrates large fluctuations MWLs, M2 amplitude levels. On inter-annual time scales, MWL reveal opposite trends, indicative locally non-linear MSL enforced at open boundary. Overall, imposed projections change enhance horizontal currents turbulent diffusivities mitigates rise–driven changes column. work establishes framework providing consistent regionalised scenario-based environment support sustainable adaptation development.